The Arctic could see days where there is no sea ice at all, a new study has estimated.
The dire findings suggest the first ice-free day in the Arctic could happen more than 10 years earlier than scientists previously feared. The study, published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment yesterday focused on when the Arctic would be ice-free for a month or more.
It follows other studies into future emission scenarios.
It is estimated the Arctic Sea could be without floating ice for an entire month by the middle of the century. This would likely be September as it’s when sea ice coverage is at its lowest.
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They predict by the turn of the century, the season could last several months where there’s no floating ice throughout this time. This is also dependent on what nations are doing collectively. if nothing changes, it’s estimated the Arctic would be ice-free consistently, even in the colder winter months.
‘Ice-free’ doesn’t mean there is no ice in the water at all, but refers to the ratio between the ocean and ice. It surpasses this threshold when the water has less than 1 million square km of ice, which is less than 20% of the Arctic’s minimum ice cover in its warmest season during the 1980s. The region had around 3.3 million square km of sea ice area at the lowest in September in recent years.
Researchers analyzed sea ice coverage data to assess how the area may change in the future. They found the first day when sea ice dips below the threshold would occur on average, four years earlier – based on monthly averages – but could come as soon as 18 years earlier than predicted.
Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences said: “When it comes to communicating what scientists expect to happen in the Arctic, it is important to predict when we might observe the first ice-free conditions in the Arctic, which will show up in the daily satellite data.”
Jahn, a fellow at CU Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research said greenhouse gasses are the main factors when it comes to sea ice levels. Snow and ice cover decreasing due to heat from the sunlight absorbed by the ocean, ice melting and rising temperatures in the Arctic are warning signs.
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Declining rates of sea ice will significantly impact animals that rely on it for survival, from polar bears to seals. And if the ocean heats up, scientists fear non-native fish could move up into the region, which would be invasive to local ecosystems.
It also could impact communities who live near and in the Arctic, with coastal areas at risk of erosion as ocean waves get bigger.
Jahn added: “This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions.”
However, researchers say it can be reversed if the planet cools down amid the Earth’s fight against climate change.
She said: “Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade.”
The study was funded by the US National Science Foundation, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and NASA.
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