A new study offers a real-world climate change experiment along the Gulf Coast and the possible impact 50 years or longer into the future.
Scientists are generally reliant on computer models to project the long-term effects of climate change, say rising seas, but an unexpected set of circumstances enabled a real-world experiment which was similar to travelling in time.
The study, published in Nature Communications by Tulane University, offers insight into the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands decades into the future.
400 monitoring sites were established along the Louisiana coast following hurricanes Katrina and Rita before the sea level rose more than 10 millimeters (half an inch) per year, which is at least three times the global average. This type of rise wasn’t expected until 2070.
The rise has allowed researchers to see whether wetlands and marshes would survive that level of coastal flooding.
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Torbjörn Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Tulane Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: It is the dream of every field researcher who does experiments — we can basically travel 50 years into the future to get a peek at what’s in store.”
Scientists used new techniques to measure sea levels off the coast with satellite data, comparing the rate the water was rising at each of the 400 monitoring sites, with the rate of wetland elevation change. It found almost 90% of the sites were in deficit.
Guandong Li, a PhD candidate in Earth and Environmental Sciences at Tulane who led the study, said: “To our knowledge, this is the first time that a climate impact experiment has been carried out over a region this large, based on hundreds of monitoring stations that have collected data for about 15 years.
“This has also allowed us to study the climate impact on a heavily human-influenced landscape, rather than a more resilient pristine ecosystem.”
“Guandong immediately dropped everything he was working on to take advantage of this unique opportunity,” Törnqvist said.
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“He set out to answer the key question of whether coastal marshes can keep up with this rate of sea-level rise, as some earlier modeling studies had suggested they can.”
If climate change continues, the rate of water levels rising in the sea by 2070 is estimated to be (one-quarter inch) each year, and the study believes 75% of wetland sites will be in deficit when this time rolls around.
Researchers believe if countries meet targets set out by the Paris Agreement, reduce carbon emissions, and help to prevent the crisis of climate change, it could push the trajectory to reduce the loss of marshes and wetlands.
The study was funded by the US Department of the Treasury through Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority’s Center of Excellence Research Grants Program.
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